This is not the first time that Israel has invaded Syrian airspace. In June 2006 Israeli warplanes flew over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s palace in what many saw as a defiant message to the Syrian people. NEWSWEEK’s Joanna Chen spoke to professor Eyal Zisser, head of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, about the possible impact of the latest developments. Excerpts:
NEWSWEEK: Israel has penetrated Syrian airspace before, but this time the incident is being treated more seriously. What has changed? Eyal Zisser: The political climate changed in [August] 2006, when President Bashar al-Assad declared a shift in the status quo between Israel and Syria. His speech created a new and more hostile environment, and what happened [Thursday] must be seen against this background.
So what exactly happened? That’s the big question. We have the Syrian report, but so far there has been no Israeli denial. Israel may have been testing Syrian radar detection facilities in the area.
Is a quick military response from the Syrians at all likely? I don’t expect anything dramatic right now. The incident is not something big in itself, and Syrian sources have stated this. Syria isn’t interested in any deterioration in relations at this stage and is clearly not interested in war, so any further response to this incident, if any, will be diplomatic. However, I suggest following events closely, since there’s clearly rising tension between Israel and Syria and it’s not going to go away.
How do you interpret Israel’s silence? The simple thing was [for Israel] to say “We didn’t do it. It has nothing to do with us.” So the silence shows Israel has a connection but wants to keep a limited, low profile at this stage. In the past Israeli officials and spokesmen haven’t hesitated verbally attacking Syria and emphasizing its weaknesses. Similarly, Syria prefers to keep a relatively low profile and to contain any reaction.
Is it possible that Israel planned this mission to coincide with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s next visit to the Middle East? I don’t believe so, since no one is taking her too seriously in this region. What’s the big deal? No one expects her visit to produce anything dramatic.
Some analysts have interpreted the Israeli action as a way of reasserting military prowess lost in last year’s Lebanon war, or of distracting attention from Israel’s military actions in Gaza. If this were Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s doing, then maybe. But [Israeli Defense Minister] Ehud Barak, unlike Olmert, is an experienced and calculating general. When Barak was prime minister he was accused of being too careful and was reluctant to use force. I’m giving him credit that if he ordered Israel to fly over Syria he knew what he was doing. He knows how dangerous it is to play with the Syrians right now and would not get involved in a game leading to war only to distract attention or to flex muscles.
What are relations like today between Israel and Syria? They’re not in state of war but not in state of peace, either. Each side is quietly preparing for the possibility of war, and Syria may reach the conclusion that war might not be a bad thing. Let’s not forget, for example, that Syria continues to supply [Lebanon’s] Hizbullah with advanced missiles.
What will happen next? For now, this incident is already behind us, but the problem is in the long run. So in the coming year we can expect these seemingly small incidents occurring every now and then to gradually increase tension. We can expect deterioration, more military tension, and eventually someone on one side or the other could decide to lead into war. If you follow Syrian discourse in the media you can feel how hostile it is. Israel has an interest in preserving the status quo due to its hold on the Golan Heights, but Syria is less interested in this and may want to break it.
So far the Bush administration has kept quiet about this. The United States responded in the same way as Israel. Usually the White House has something to say on matters like this, but this time it was very low-key. Why didn’t the U.S. administration criticize Israel? Only time will tell.
Is Israel afraid that Iran may try to topple the delicate balance? The fear is always there, but Iran was always ready to fight to the last Lebanese and Syrian soldier, so Iran has always stayed at the back and let Syria fight. But there is little Iran can actually do, since it has no [border with Syria or Israel]. Although Iran will always play a negative role, it will always be a limited one.
