It’s Kaepernick vs. RG3 on the marquee as the 49ers face the Redskins on Monday (8:40 p.m. ET kickoff, ESPN), but in 2013 those names aren’t shining nearly as brightly as they were this time last season. There was the possibility both quarterbacks would take a step back in their second year as starters, but we didn’t imagine things would be quite like this.
Every defense in the league worked overtime this offseason to keep athletes such as Kaepernick and Griffin from running wild out of the zone read. They needed to adjust their games to stay ahead of the competition — and they didn’t do it.
Forget the obvious dip in rushing production; the much bigger struggle for both has been in the passing game. They’ve simply been far less efficient and accurate.
Kaepernick has an 81.8 passer rating and 56.2 completion percentage, down from 98.3 and 62.4, respectively. Griffin has had a bigger drop, from 102.4 to 83.6 in passer rating and from 65.6 to 59.7 in completion percentage.
Also, while Kaepernick has 11 turnovers as opposed to his five in seven starts last season, Griffin’s have doubled, from seven to 14.
Those numbers only tell part of their stories, though. The bottom line: Big plays have been replaced by more frequent little mistakes.
What’s wrong with Kaep?
If you ask 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, as reporters did on Thursday, nothing is.
“He's doing a heck of a job," Harbaugh said. "I would be puzzled why people would think that. What's more important is what we see."
What we’ve seen from the 49ers and their league-worst passing game, however, is them taking games out of Kaepernick’s hands. With a limited receiving corps, they realize that going to power running formations with fullbacks and tight ends gives them their best shot at winning.
Throw out the statistical anomaly that was Kaepernick's 412-yard, three-touchdown torching of the Packers' shoddy defense way back in Week 1. In 49ers' five other wins, he has averaged fewer than 21 passing attempts. In their four losses, it’s been 27. In the past two games, losses to the Panthers and Saints, Kaepernick, shockingly, completed no passes that went for 20 yards or more.
Since the Packers game, his best healthy wide receiver, Anquan Boldin, has struggled to separate in his miscast role as the No. 1 receiver. Tight end Vernon Davis, frequently double-teamed, has been great when healthy, but he missed some time with a hamstring injury and a concussion.
In turn, Kaepernick has been caught holding the ball too long while looking for the big pass, pressing to force throws downfield and taking more sacks when the plays aren’t there. It’s also more difficult for him to make up for it on runs. The 49ers aren’t able to consistently stretch the field, so space up front is tighter as teams load up to stop the run against those jumbo packages.
So Harbaugh’s partly right. Kaepernick is doing the best with what he has, which isn’t much beyond Boldin and Davis. The loss of go-to top wide receiver Michael Crabtree, a consistent source of deep-shot success for Kaepernick last season, is even bigger than we thought. But because Kaepernick did it all so well in 2012, it’s clear he’s trying to do too much now, and he's hurting the team given its current limitations.
What’s wrong with RG3?
Unlike Harbaugh, Redskins coach Mike Shanahan didn’t hold back in breaking down Griffin’s problems this past week. It was easier for him to do that because it was a rebuttal to his outspoken quarterback questioning the offensive coaches' play-calling.
“Our first year everybody played us in an eight-man front, sometimes almost in a nine-man front,” Shanahan said after RG3’s latest struggles in last Sunday’s loss at Philadelphia. “When you do that you’re going to have guys wide open — one of the reasons why the play-action game was so good and one of the reasons why we were ranked where we were throwing the football with yards per play.
“This year they’re saying, ‘You’re going to have to earn your right in that running game,’ which we’ve been able to do. You’re not going to always get that deep ball so you’ve got to dump it off and be patient.”
How about this weird statistical similarity between Kaepernick and Griffin? Both have seen their adjusted average yards per attempt go from a stellar 8.6 to a mediocre 6.8. The difference is, RG3 has had more trouble taking what a defense gives him. Also, the Redskins aren’t adjusting as well to help him out of his struggles.
It’s easy to see on film that as teams have forced Griffin to go through more of his progressions, he’s missing a lot of favorable checkdowns while being locked into looking for vertical routes that were always there in 2012. RG3 looks too much at Pierre Garcon first, Jordan Reed second, and not enough other receivers third.
The Redskins, unlike the 49ers, haven’t adjusted while their quarterback is working through his issues. Even though they are having continued great success in the traditional running game with Alfred Morris, they don’t stick with it as long as they should in games. Also unlike the 49ers, Washington's defense isn’t reliable, and Griffin is often being forced to throw while in comeback mode. That has contributed to his growing impatience.
Dating to his Heisman days with Baylor, RG3 is used to doing a lot to lift a team. His inability to do the little things well has hurt Washington this season.
Who can get it right faster?
That’s easy: Kaepernick. He has major help coming with Crabtree returning soon from an Achilles’ injury that has kept him out all season. Crabtree is a game-changer because Kaepernick trusts him so much and they have great chemistry on passes deeper downfield. He also has the support of a more consistent offensive line (especially inside) and a defense that can allow him to be more of a caretaker until he can get hot again.
As for Griffin, there is an obvious disconnect with his coaching staff, one that may not be corrected unless the Redskins move on from the Shanahans in 2014. They also must improve their No. 2 and No. 3 receivers.
It takes a village to get a young QB out of his doldrums, and the 49ers have a much better personnel to get that done.
