The first signal came in meetings Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze held in Copenhagen last week with West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher and U.S. Secretary of State James Baker. At the summit, Gorbachev had said almost oflhandedly that perhaps NATO and the Warsaw Pact could work together somehow. Baker’s political antennae went up; he spied an opening. The day the summit ended, he floated Gorbachev’s idea on NBC-TV’s “Meet the Press.” Washington would be receptive, he suggested–if the Soviets came forward first. In Copenhagen, Shevardnadze seemed to take the hint. He said the Warsaw Pact would soon propose a new relationship between the two alliances. This would make German unity less threatening to the Russian people. And it would make Gorbachev appear to be taking the initiative–a helpful face saver.
Shevardnadze also said the Soviets would offer new proposals in the stalled conventional-arms talks. And he appeared ready to talk about how to limit the size of the united Germany’s military without imposing insulting special restrictions. West German sources said a likely formulation would be a “sufficiency rule” with equal numerical limits on every nation’s armed forces in Central Europe. “We understand that the Soviets need assurance that the Bundeswehr won’t be stronger than U.S. and Soviet forces in Europe combined,” said a senior Bonn official.
Why the turnaround? American officials suspected the Washington summit reassured Gorbachev of Bush’s readiness to treat Moscow not as a cold-war loser but as what one U.S. aide called “an equal partner.” At the same time, Gorbachev saw firsthand that the West wasn’t going to budge on the issue of German membership in NATO. Finally, Baker noted, “The Soviets recognize the importance of future good relations with a united Germany.” They will need Bonn’s economic help.
Hurdles remain. Domestic pressures could force Gorbachev to harden his line. And the West has to keep its end of the bargain by reshaping NATO, causing tensions within the alliance. Late last week Baker hurried home from a NATO meeting in Scotland to join Bush at a White House stag dinner for West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. White House officials said the president wanted to reassure Kohl that he wouldn’t sell out a speedy German unification just to help Gorbachev at home.
