Howard’s statement broke a golden rule of diplomacy–never comment on an upcoming election in a friendly country–and earned him a sardonic rebuke from Obama, who pointed out that for all of Howard’s tough talk, Australia has sent a mere 1,400 troops to Iraq. This uncharacteristic misstep from such a grizzled political operator had a fairly simple explanation: Howard is expected to call an election of his own, probably later this year, and figured taking a swing at Obama would play well in his staunchly, even uniquely pro-American country. Only he figured wrong; the normally self-assured Howard is becoming rattled, and it shows.
Ever since 9/11, Howard has built his popular appeal by looking tough on national security. His approach has been straightforward: to develop a very close relationship with George W. Bush. No other world leader–not even Tony Blair–has been more consistent and more effusive in his support for Bush’s policies. Until recently, this strategy has played well at home. Australians, as a rule, are staunchly pro-American–much more so even than the British, despite all the talk of a “special relationship”–and want their country to stay closely aligned to the United States. And they don’t seem to worry much if this leaves them out of step with the harshly anti-American trend of world opinion. As long as Bush and his policies remained popular in the United States, Australians–whom polls consistently rank among the world’s most pro-U.S. population–largely ignored the bad press he received elsewhere.
But now Bush’s popularity has fallen precipitously, and most Americans have lost faith with him on Iraq. Australians, recognizing this shift, are starting to wonder why they should stick with Bush when his own constituents are not. Iraq itself is a fairly minor issue in Australia; as Obama pointed out, the country’s troop contribution is small and has resulted in no casualties. But Australians remain extremely preoccupied with their alliance with the United States–something they see as essential to their security in the complex and sometimes frightening Asian region.
The public has shown it will not support a candidate who seems likely to damage ties with their strongest ally. This was made clear in 2004, when Howard’s lock-step alignment with Bush–and his opponent’s threat to weaken the alliance by pulling Australian forces out of Iraq–contributed to Howard’s landslide victory. This year, however, Howard’s opponent is no strident anti-American; Kevin Rudd, the new Labor leader, is a steady, scholarly foreign-policy professional with impeccable pro-U.S. credentials.
These two factors–Rudd’s credibility and Bush’s status as a lame duck–are making it much harder for Howard to persuade Australian voters that his support for the president is the best way to keep the alliance strong. Howard has determined that the only way to convince Australians is to persuade them that Bush is right on Iraq. But that too is becoming much more difficult. To make the case, Howard has started drawing ever-bleaker pictures of what would happen if the United States withdrew, and has started lashing out at those who favor such a move. This week, he suggested that withdrawal could undermine U.S. strategic commitments in Asia, where Australia’s own security interests are most directly engaged.
Unfortunately for Howard, the more he makes Iraq an issue, the more meager Australia’s commitment there starts to seem–as Obama stressed. If Iraq is so important, surely Australia should be doing more to help. Some American officials privately accuse Howard of playing a double game, reaping the rewards of seeming a strong U.S. ally while carefully minimizing the risks by keeping Australia’s forces out of harm’s way.
And now Howard has taken a big gamble on the outcome of next year’s U.S. election. He has tried desperately to prove that he’s the candidate best positioned to preserve Australia’s alliance with the United States. But that will only work if the next U.S. president happens to share Bush’s positions on Iraq and other issues–which is starting to look like a long shot. This spells trouble for Howard; Australians may like to gamble, but not on these odds.
