George W. Bush’s royal progress passed though the same northern Virginian territory last week, and in so doing demonstrated that everything had changed–on the ground and in the party. The “movement” remains, in the form of the headquarters of Pat Buchanan, Gary Bauer and Steve Forbes, and in the offices of groups such as the National Rifle Association. But the action is elsewhere: on the vast travertine campuses of companies such as America Online. Reagan’s old encampment, it turns out, has become the Capital of the Internet, a hive of entrepreneurial energy buzzing with technologies pioneered nearby–at the Pentagon.
This new anti-Washington is predominantly Republican and, by its own lights, conservative. But its denizens tend to care more about education than abortion, more about global trade than evil empires. Drawn by Bush’s star power, looking not to enlist in a crusade but to back a winner and be left alone to make a bundle, hundreds of executives last week forked over $1,000 each to hear the governor of Texas preach his soothing mantra of “compassionate conservatism.”
The primaries are six months away–light-years in politics, and plenty of time for front-running “W” to collapse. But so far his assets include not just the gobs of money he has raised (more than $40 million), but his talent for attracting, anesthetizing–even neutralizing–the conservatives who have long been pivotal to winning the GOP nomination. Many “movement” leaders distrust him, but don’t know how to stop him. GOP elected officials are generally with him, and his rivals–most of them to his right–are starved for attention. One of them, Rep. John Kasich of Ohio, left the race last week (he endorsed Bush), and others could depart after a straw poll in Iowa next month.
Bush’s rise is driving some movement types not just out of the race, but out of the party. Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire quit the GOP last week, vowing to run as an independent in 2000. “Conservatives are frustrated and silent,” he said. “We feel shut out.” Smith is unlikely to play an important role next year, but others claimed his departure is a warning that the hard right will stay home next year if Bush is the nominee. “The perception at the grass roots is that the fix is in,” fumed Phyllis Schlafly, a founding mother of the New Right.
In fact, Bush’s position is the result of shrewd work, great luck and, ironically, the success of the conservative movement itself. Working in his father’s 1988 presidential campaign, “W” made it his business to meet the rising generation of New Right leaders. When he geared up to run for governor, in 1993, he tacked to the right on issues such as gun control, prayer in schools and the death penalty. As governor he pleased the NRA by signing a bill that allows Texans to carry concealed weapons. In his presidential bid he has established close ties with the National Right to Life Committee, the NRA and the Christian Coalition. Americans for Tax Justice have nice things to say. So does Rush Limbaugh, who ridicules the “fix is in” theory. “Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best,” he said. “The guy is popular.”
Now Bush is carefully tacking to the middle, confident that he can finesse the hard right as he aims for the general election. “Concealed carry” was right for Texas, he said last week, but he wouldn’t try to impose that pro-gun measure on the country. There will be no “litmus test” for federal judges, he said, and he won’t push for tax cuts without making sure that Social Security, Medicare and the Pentagon are made whole. He quietly met with top Democrats in Hollywood, NEWSWEEK learned, including Warren Beatty, Jack Valenti and Sherry Lansing, and wowed them with his charm and a pledge to work hard on education. Some conservatives were alarmed. “I know Ronald Reagan,” huffs Smith, “and Bush is no Ronald Reagan.”
But no one else is, either. Sen. John McCain is admired as a war hero, and has a conservative voting record, but is distrusted by many hard-right activists. Elizabeth Dole is a Bible-belt product who could have courted the right, but moved left instead and seems to be going nowhere fast. Dan Quayle still is haunted by a perpetual laugh track. Buchanan was a sensation in New Hampshire in 1992 and 1996, but even his fans in the Granite State think he is running one time too many. Forbes is worth billions, and will spend $100 million–but few outside his camp think he can be more than a platinum-plated spoiler.
In a way, the “movement” is a victim of its own success. The Soviet Union is gone, the Berlin wall a distant memory. The budget is balanced, and Republicans and Democrats are arguing in Congress over who has the better tax-cut plan. The brave new digital world in Virginia is a sprawling field of unfettered capitalism, in itself a triumph of the Reagan vision. “Everybody’s a Reaganite now,” said Forbes strategist Jeff Bell. The Bush family didn’t stake out the ground, but they’ve learned to love it–and now they think that no one can stop them from claiming it as their own.
